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+--- Thread: Are the winds of change going to hit Pakistan? (/thread-are-the-winds-of-change-going-to-hit-pakistan)
Are the winds of change going to hit Pakistan? - Pervez - 09-28-2003
Dear fellows!
I have been noticing a sudden swing to religious topics on these forums. I find this swing of pendulum a bit too extreme. All of a sudden, we are converted from a London dreaming youth to a stick carrying Tableege! I find this not only unnatural, but if i am allowed to say so, a bit fake. Heck, this beats St. Paul's conversion to christianity on the road to Damascus (and that was considered fast by my observers) . Therefore, i am suggesting this new topic which is purely political. Please i request not to make this paragraph a basis of new heated debate about religion.!! Thank you.
I have been observing recent developments in political arena in Pakistan. As we all know, Pakistan, is a key country in South Asia.
It is on the cross roads between central asia, middle east, and south east asia. The changes in Pakistan have repercussions beyond our borders.
As you all know, in recent past, most of the changes in Pakistan have their origions in foreign countries specially in North America. I have watched closely the recent visit of our President to U.S. and Canada. I got a distinct impression that something is brewing underneath the rosy picture painted by both sides.
General Mushraf has gained creditability with western world by his efforts to modernise Pakistan. In fact, his analysis are listened carefully in many capitals of western world. However, i found him a bit off-beat and not in his true self when he was talking to journalists this time around.
It seems there are certain events that are going to affect the current regime adversely in the comming months and year.
First of all, 2004 is an election year in U.S. We can only ignore the importance of this event at our own peril. There are well documented effects of election years on US economy, stock markets, and every thing in between. I have a feeling that US will expect some dramatic developements on the terrorism front in the run up to elections. Any guesses here. Yes, in plain english, there will be an expectation of netting some big fishes here in Pakistan. Now, our President is between a rock and a hard place here. He will be damned if he does something and will be damned if he doesn't do something. A hard choice in deed.
Secondly,as you all know, US is asking India and Pakistan to provide military support for operations in Iraq. Mr Vajpayee, a cunning bania as he is, trying to bargain the best deal for his country. He is making his support conditional on additional pressure on Pakistan about cross border incurssions into Kashmire. Of course, the official line is that India will only provide troops under U.N. mandate.
There is a lively debate going on in Turkey as well about sending troops to Iraq for peace keeping. My prediction is that Pakistan's policy in this regard will be in line with othe Muslim countries. However, this does put Pakistan's govt in a bit of tough position to justify it for domestic participants.
Thirdly, there are developments on domestic front which does not look favourable for powers in Islamabad. The opposition as i read is planning a movement somewhere from first week of October. Some of the exiled leaders have become hyper active again (Shahbaz is rumoured to be returning to Pakistan and BB is pitching for favour in Washington-perhaps she is in Washington at the moment) As we know the civilian govt which was toothless to start with, is becoming redundent very quickly. This is not a new story. The problems in third world countries are so overwhelming that they eat up the leadership in no time. People get disappointed very fast as they see no change in their daily lives from any govt. actions.
So my view is that some form of change is definitely going to sweep our country. Who will survive it and who will thrive on it, only the time will tell. Some of you might ask why is it relevant to accountants. It might not affect us directly, but as you know, our stock markets have been under watch by world investors. They have performed superbly in recent past. These events will definitely affect the investment world substantialy. Therefore, our interest is not only justified but professionaly necessary.
So fellows get your enginees started and get rolling. Say what you want and feel deep in your hearts. My only request is that we don't personalize the issues and be polite to each other.
Thank you
Edited by - Pervez on Sep 27 2003 75948 PM
Edited by - Pervez on Sep 27 2003 81528 PM
Edited by - Pervez on Sep 27 2003 82113 PM
- jbladeus - 09-28-2003
<BLOCKQUOTE id=quote><font size=1 face="Verdana" id=quote>quote<hr height=1 noshade id=quote>Heck, this beats St. Paul's conversion to christianity on the road to Damascus<hr height=1 noshade id=quote></BLOCKQUOTE id=quote></font id=quote><font face="Verdana" size=2 id=quote>
Lol... good one Pervez.
Anyways, interesting header of this topic. In my opinion, NO i dont think that there would be much change in the top brass of this country, until and unless this 'War on Terrorism' takes a decisive turn. After that who knows, the way things go around here, another C-130 might take a dive!
Governmental changes means political instability, and in the case of Pakistan, even more fragility to the already near-to-breaking-point situation. The global powerbrokers cant afford an unstable government in Pakistan, a Pakistan which is also nuclear-capable.
Currently, the only alternative to Musharraf's government in Pakistan is the rule of the ultra-right wingers, which is totally unacceptable to both the powerbrokers and the people of Pakistan themselves. The leftist parties in Pakistan are way too much fragmented at this time to have any significant political clout and there is a severe lack of genuine leadership among these groups. I would blame two certain individuals for this malaise who didnt allow any new leadership to rise from their parties' ranks.
As for Messers Sharif returning to Pakistan, for the past 2-3 years, these rumors always start circulating as we near October 12 and then just die down as quickly as they are started.
Since the US elections are coming up in 2004, problems might arise for Senor Bush as his opponents will bash him for supporting a dictatorship in Pakistan. This might cause the Bush administration to remove the 'daar-e-shafqat' from Mush's head for a time. But then to counter this point, there are much bigger issues to bash Bush and his merry band of neocons with! Who knows, it might not even be an issue in the race. Although i believe that the Indian lobbies will try their utter best to push this point through their horses in the presdential race. Lets see what happens.
I like this idea put forward by Pakistan of an international peacekeeping force of Muslim countries in Iraq, instead of a force of eurpoean and western nations. This will have three benefits. First is the obvious one, which is that it is the only international force which is acceptable to the Iraqis themselves. The other will be that such a force would obviously would be lead by Pakistan and our position will be further cemented in the Muslim and International coummunity as the leader of Islamic world and as a regional power. Thirdly, this will create many economic opportunities for us in that country, and we can always put the expenses tab of such a force on other countries and the UN.
Whatever happens, Mush and co should take advantage of this breathing period and try to strengthen the economic condition and reduce the debts before the bad times do come and the screws are tightened once again on us. I believe that its an eventuality, because the current good relationship between Pakistan and US is just a temporary phase. The day this so-called 'War on Terrorism' ends, so will these merry times.
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Arrrgh... it sure's gonna be mighty rough sailin' today ... mates!
- Pervez - 09-29-2003
Hi Guybrush!
Very good observations about world affairs. I was pleasently surprised how well versed you are in current affairs. Now i know for sure Karachi is not on Mars. Hmmmm! i got to be a bit careful here before people start calling this an SMA (Society for Mutual Admiration!!!)
See if anyother member come up with anything interesting on this topic. We should wait and if some interesting developments take place, we can revisit the topic.
Thank you
Take Care!!
<img src=icon_smile_cool.gif border=0 align=middle><img src=icon_smile_cool.gif border=0 align=middle><img src=icon_smile_cool.gif border=0 align=middle>
Edited by - Pervez on Sep 29 2003 90828 PM
- jbladeus - 09-30-2003
Thanx Pervez
Yeah, i do try to keep up to date with the current affairs. Yes and I do read newspapers in detail (including the editorials and opinions, helps one to talk about something in a boring social affair <img src=icon_smile.gif border=0 align=middle>) and also try to watch all the news channel for some time every day. Infact my favorite ENTERTAINMENT tv channel is Neoco... err.. Fox News. Much, much better than any sitcom around! <img src=icon_smile_big.gif border=0 align=middle><img src=icon_smile_big.gif border=0 align=middle><img src=icon_smile_big.gif border=0 align=middle>
Better to let them call it an SMA than a S&MA. (get it? S&M) <img src=icon_smile_wink.gif border=0 align=middle>
________________________
Arrrgh... it sure's gonna be mighty rough sailin' today ... mates!
- meer - 10-01-2003
For heaven's Sake guys brush ...do you really watch Fox news...it's an american mouthpeace.
- jbladeus - 10-01-2003
Meer
I am dead sure that you always used to get 110 out of 100 in your Maths exams... am i right or not? And i am also sure that your IQ must be atleast 200+! <img src=icon_smile.gif border=0 align=middle>
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Arrrgh... it sure's gonna be mighty rough sailin' today ... mates!