01-10-2004, 05:32 PM
there is this vogue argument about the huge US current account deficit which needs to be plugged in.... i think +500b$ if am not wrong.
either increase exports or decrease imports.... the only way it will come about without government intervention is a devaluation in us dollars.... u r derivative trader so u should know how much dollar is being traded in future... i can only say that another 10-15% devaluation is not out of question.
however this correction is already burdoning euro zone due to huge impact of adjustments (around 25% appreciation in EUR)
.... china and east asian economies have been insulated due to pegging with US dollar or strict range control.
thats why some of the us politicians say that china is exporting deflation to us by not floating its currency....
the arguement goes that chinese investors are buying us paper thus financing the credit liquidity which in turn increases demand for chinese goods....and in turn increases us current account deficit.....its really a vicious cycle
<img src=icon_smile_big.gif border=0 align=middle><img src=icon_smile_big.gif border=0 align=middle><img src=icon_smile_evil.gif border=0 align=middle><img src=icon_smile_evil.gif border=0 align=middle><img src=icon_smile_big.gif border=0 align=middle><img src=icon_smile_big.gif border=0 align=middle>
either increase exports or decrease imports.... the only way it will come about without government intervention is a devaluation in us dollars.... u r derivative trader so u should know how much dollar is being traded in future... i can only say that another 10-15% devaluation is not out of question.
however this correction is already burdoning euro zone due to huge impact of adjustments (around 25% appreciation in EUR)
.... china and east asian economies have been insulated due to pegging with US dollar or strict range control.
thats why some of the us politicians say that china is exporting deflation to us by not floating its currency....
the arguement goes that chinese investors are buying us paper thus financing the credit liquidity which in turn increases demand for chinese goods....and in turn increases us current account deficit.....its really a vicious cycle
<img src=icon_smile_big.gif border=0 align=middle><img src=icon_smile_big.gif border=0 align=middle><img src=icon_smile_evil.gif border=0 align=middle><img src=icon_smile_evil.gif border=0 align=middle><img src=icon_smile_big.gif border=0 align=middle><img src=icon_smile_big.gif border=0 align=middle>
